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Future returns to education in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria

Anne Goujon, Vienna Institute of Demography and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Samir K.C., International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

This paper proposes to project the population by levels of educational attainment of three African countries with a large population: Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. We will use the methodology of multi-state population projections. The scenarios developed for the projections will pay special attention to the consequences of high population growth on the capacity of the education system to absorb the growing number of pupils. Another important aspect of the projection will be to look at the numerous by-products created within the schooling process – outcomes that occur as a result of cross-sect oral consequences of the education process. We will show only two examples of those benefits associated with education – to child mortality and to fertility – which are apparent from the projection exercise.

Presented in Session 33: What are the social and economic returns of schooling in contemporary Africa?