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Current trends and future course of transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in South India: Projections from Asian epidemic (aem) / goals model

Dayanand G. Satihal, Population Research Centre, Institute of Economic Research, Dharwad
Pradeep Kumar Bhargava, Population Research Centre, Dharwad, India

The paper analysis the primary groups and transmission modes driving HIV transmission in high prevalence state of Karnataka in south India. Based on synthesis of the past and current demographic, epidemiological and behavioral data, HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence are projected in different population subgroups up to 2015 using deterministic ASIA Epidemic Model. The impact of different interventions on the future course of the epidemic is also made by applying GOALS Model, varying behavioral factors and trends in co factors. The estimates suggest cumulative HIV infections will be around 6 lacks with 50 thousand infecting every year. New infections are increasing among low risk women and clients of sex workers. Enhanced coverage of clients of sex workers could avert 39,000, 12,211 and 600 new infections among general population, clients and children respectively by 2015 with additional cost 33% of the present investments suggesting more programs for general population in addressing the burden of HIV incidence.

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Presented in Poster Session 2