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Estimating trends in orphanhood among younger persons in the era of HIV/AIDS in South Africa, 2001 - 2006

Eric O Udjo, University of South Africa

Brass developed the "orphanhood questions" to estimate adult mortality. Some researchers have used the questions to estimate the magnitude of orphans for persons younger than 15 years in the context of HIV/AIDS though the questions were not designed for that purpose. The purpose of this study is to estimate the trends and the number of orphans in the era of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The data used are the 2001 South Africa Population Census, the Human Sciences Research Council/Nelson Mandel population based HIV prevalence studies as well as the South Africa 1998 Demographic and Health Survey. The estimation process consisted of a cohort component method to estimate the age-sex distributions and mortality during the period 2001-2006. On the basis of HIV prevalence curves fitted to observed data, the number of orphans due to AIDS and trends were then estimated. These values were compared with those obtained from Brass orphanhood questions.

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Presented in Session 21: Fostering and orphanhood in the era of HIV/AIDS