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A predictive modeling of urban expansion and implications for sustenance in peri-urban areas of Ogbomoso, Nigeria

Adeboyejo A. Thompson, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology
Abolade Olajoke, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology
Abodunrin Folasade Oyenike, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology
Jelili M Omoakin, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology

This paper examines the rate and pattern of urban expansion of Ogbomoso between 1914 and 2007 using GIS with input data from 1914 landuse map and updated satellite imageries. The quantum of city expansion in different periods and growth along six corridors traversing eighteen communities were used as dependent variables of a linear regression model to predict total city expansion and growth rates in the next twenty years. 359 questionnaires were administered in the eighteen communities and one FGD session conducted among community leaders in five settlements. The study reveals that a total of 2,890 hectares of rural land was engulfed between 1914 and 2007. Given the underlying processes, the built up area of the city would have tripled by the year 2027. The implications of this on sustenance in peri-urban communities include: changing economic base of communities from farming to trading economy. A revitilisation of farmers association is suggested.

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Presented in Session 61: Consequences of rapid urbanization