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Using the Bongaarts model in explaining fertility decline in Urban areas of Uganda

Yovani Moses A Lubaale, Makerere University
Joseph B Kayizzi, Makerere University

Fertility in Uganda is quite high and on average it has been consistently above 6 children between 1948 to 2002 (UBOS, 2005). Uganda’s TFR of 6.9 is among the highest TFR in Africa and probably in the world. Several surveys have established that fertility in urban areas is lower than the fertility in rural areas all over the world (World Fertility Survey 2005). For instance; Egypt’s TFR is 3.0 and 3.8 urban and rural areas respectively; Ethiopia 3.3 in urban and 6.4 in rural areas; similarly in Uganda 4.0 and 7.0. This paper tried to explain fertility decline using the Bongaarts model. The difference in fertility decline in Urban areas using Bongaarts model can be explained by the change in proportion married followed by Postpartum infecundability due to increased duration of breastfeeding and proportion breastfeeding. Contraception use contributes the least. These proximate determinants operate through Education, religion and occupation.

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Presented in Poster Session 4