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The hazard of female first marriage in Mozambique

Carlos Arnaldo, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Sandra D. Goncalves, University of Cape Town

The interpretation of nuptiality patterns has important implications in the context of family formation, fertility and dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This study analyzes age at first marriage patterns of four 10 year birth cohorts, and identifies covariates that influence female cohort age at first marriage in Mozambique using data from the 1997 and 2003 Demographic and Health Survey. A hazard function of first marriage is estimated using a log rate model for piecewise constant rates. Piecewise constant rates assume that the risk period can be categorized into mutually exclusive and exhaustive intervals with a constant hazard rate of first marriage in each interval. The risk of first marriage for birth cohorts is calculated for 5 year age categories segmented into three secular periods capturing the pre-independence era, civil war period and the post civil war era.

Presented in Poster Session 3