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Analysis of family building patterns in Kenya

Alfred Otieno, Population Studies and Research Institute

The absence of any further decline in Kenya in recent past has alarmed the demographic community. While such phenomenon is not new, it is also possible that the observed fertility as measured by TFR maybe due to flaws in the in distortion of TFR from changes in the timing of childbearing. On the other hand, there may have been a real reversal in fertility decline that could arise from change in fertility preferences. However, tracing fertility trends by traditional measures (such as TFR) in early stages of demographic transition is speculative and uncertain even if data is of good quality. This study uses birth history data from the 1998 and 2003 KDHS to examine trends in family building patterns. The main conclusion is that fertility rates increased among women in the middle age (25-34) for those in parities 4 and 5 but declined for both younger and older women.

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Presented in Session 48: Determinants of fertility change in Africa