The Fertility Transition in Kenya: Determinants of Contraceptive Use During the Late 1990s
David Ojakaa, Université de Montréal
Between the 1970s and 1990s, the Kenyan fertility transition was characterised by increasing motivation for fertility control and contraceptive prevalence. Without considering unobserved factors that affect both contraceptive use and motivation, it does not follow that increased prevalence resulted from improved access. Data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) and the 1999 Kenya Service Provision Assessment (KSPA) are used to address this issue. Based on the fertility demand-supply framework, factors that determine contraceptive use are modeled using the probit distribution; the endogeneity between contraceptive use and fertility demand being handled with the instrumental variables approach. Hypotheses tested comprise the effects of age, region of residence, motivation for fertility control, and proximity to family planning services. Although access is non-significant, motivation for fertility control, education, and exposure to family planning messages are - suggesting that they should be considered in policy formulation and program implementation.